USEC, Inc. (USEC) Current Price $4.48 Estimated 1 Year Price $14.50

USEC Inc. (USEC), a global energy company is a supplier of low enriched uranium (LEU) for commercial nuclear power plants. USEC supplies LEU to both domestic and international utilities for use in about 150 nuclear reactors globally. It provides transportation and storage systems for spent nuclear fuel and provide nuclear and energy consulting services. The Company produces or acquires LEU from two principal sources. It produces LEU at the Paducah gaseous diffusion plant (GDP) in Paducah, Kentucky. It acquires LEU by purchasing the SWU component of LEU from Russia under the Megatons to Megawatts program.

Symbol: USEC

Address
2 Democracy Center 6903 Rockledge Drive
Bethesda, MD 20817
United States - Map
(301) 564-3200

http://www.usec.com

USEC is one of those stocks that is currently trading under book value. The company is in supply and consulting service industry for nuclear services which is growing. I would like to see the company pay down some debt but looks like they are in expansion mode which isn’t a bad thing. The margins are decent but what makes this a big play is the share price is way undervalued. USEC is currently trading at $4.48. I would put a fair value at $14.50 a share.

Quiksilver, Inc. (ZQK) Current Price $4.21 Estimated 1 Year Price $6.69

Quiksilver, Inc. is a diversified company that designs, develops and distributes branded apparel, footwear, accessories and related products, catering to the casual, youth lifestyle associated with the sports of surfing, skateboarding and snowboarding. It markets products across three core brands: Quiksilver, Roxy and DC, as well as several smaller brands. Its products are sold in over 90 countries in a range of distribution channels, including surf shops, skateboard shops, snowboard shops, specialty stores, select department stores and 764 owned or licensed company stores. During fiscal year ended October 31, 2010 (fiscal 2010), more than 65% of its revenue was generated outside of the United States. In April 2010, the Company sold its Raisins juniors swimwear label and Leilani contemporary label.

Symbol: ZQK

Address
15202 Graham Street
Huntington Beach, CA 92649
United States
(714) 889-2200

www.quiksilverinc.com

Quiksilver is doing some good things. The company is steady in revenues with great margins. The company has been paying down debt like crazy in the last few years. Their payroll numbers are a little on the high side but overall Quiksilver is well ran. This company is undervalued with its solid revenues and footprint of 700+ store distribution network. I think this company will appreciate to about $6.69 a share.

Avis Budget Group, Inc (CAR) Current Price $15.65 Estimated 1 Year Price $10.00

Avis Budget Group, Inc. (Avis Budget) provides car and truck rentals and ancillary services to businesses and consumers in the United States and internationally. The Company operates two brands in the global vehicle rental industry, through Avis and Budget. Avis is a rental car supplier to the commercial and leisure segments of the travel industry and Budget is a rental car. Avis Budget is a vehicle rental operator in North America, Australia, New Zealand and certain other regions. The Company operates in three segments: domestic car rental, consisting of its Avis and Budget United States car rental operations; international car rental, consisting of the Company’s international Avis and Budget vehicle rental operations, and truck rental, consisting of its Budget truck rental operations in the United States.

SYMBOL: CAR

Address:
6 Sylvan Way
Parsippany, NJ 07054
United States
1-973-4964700
http://www.avisbudgetgroup.com/

There are a lot of things going wrong with this company. Their Gross Profit Margins are terrible with almost every other quarter ending in the red. The company has racked up huge sums of debt secured by declining assets. This company is overvalued at $15.65 and I belief should be sitting under $5. I believe Avis’s only value will be as an acquisition candidate down the road and the price will be significantly less than $15. I would short this stock and look for the price to plummet in the next year with the release of current financials.

Why do People find God in Jail?

I used to wonder that too until I thought about it like a building. God represents the ground and the person is a building. They start on this solid ground with a foundation that is provided and build their life. The more they build the stronger the foundation has to be. If the foundation is weak the building will eventually collapse. They used to have a lot of rooms to go to in the building and never thought about the ground below it which always stayed firm. Once the building collapsed they have no more rooms to go to, but the ground was there and still firm. They only thing they have left is that solid piece of ground they started with. They can now decide to rebuild with another shaky foundation or build smartly with a better foundation. They are unsure what to do and the only thing they feel they have left is the ground. The great thing is you can help them pick a better foundation. They won’t have all the best tools and they will only know the blueprints for that shaky foundation but with some hard work they can acquire more tools and start anew with a better plan. The trick is helping them in that short time they spend with you.

Was Mike Vick's sentence too much?

No I don’t think so. I don’t think you can set up our justice system to treat one individual different than others. If the act of dog fighting is so abhorrent then all convicted of the crime should get the same justice. I believe his sentence is fair but others have been treated lightly when they should get the full merit of the law. Those who are likely to commit the act are the ones who got away lightly in the first place. If I am in an environment where “dog fighting” is the norm and my friend is convicted for it and doesn’t receive jail time, it’s going to play a more important determinant in my future actions than what happened to a pro athlete who is no longer part of that community. I don’t think people should say “they made an example out of Mike Vick” but they should say “Mike Vick didn’t receive any special sentencing”.

In my opinion there should be two classifications of incarceration. The first is those who will be rejoining society. These prisoners need to detained grouped in with those who committed the same crime and daily working on actually correcting the behavior which is not acceptable and the establishing a skill set which allows the prisoner to immediately cope with society upon release. The second class is those we deem a risk to society and not to be released. They should be housed as humanely as possible structured around a restrictive internal society. Each class is now intermingled and prisoners are housed by the severity of behavior. There is little treatment going on and very little done to make the prisoner ready to be reintroduced to society.

What Political Party do I belong to?

The Popular Party is founded on the principle that politicians should do what is in the best interest of their constituents. When elected to office members of the Popular Party agree to make known publicly all major issues up for their vote. They agree to have a mechanism which will allow their constituents to cast their vote for this legislation. They agree to cast their vote in favor of their constituent’s popular opinion casting aside all personal feelings. They agree to open their office up to the voices of their constituents and to enact legislation recommend by their constituents.

Student Loan Forgiveness in tough economy (September 26, 2009)

Cancel or Forgive it doesn’t matter the verbiage it can’t happen. These loans were underwritten by banks with certain guarantees by the Federal Government. The government would need to make the banks whole. Our Federal Budget is not balanced and operates at a deficit. This means any form of stimulus driven plan is going to come from more borrowing or significant reduction in government expenses. If the Federal Government were to “bailout” student loan holders the down the road implications are higher taxes, more taxes, or a significant reduction in government expenses. When one company closes the business doesn’t go away it goes to another place. In a capitalist economy it’s the law of supply and demand. We are much better off letting a struggling company fail so a just getting by company can thrive. One way to stimulate the economy is to bring our troops home and invoice foreign countries for services rendered. We have the means to capture oil output reserves in IRAQ to fill our strategic reserves. The federal government quits paying private industry to fill these reserves until we have accounted for every dollar spent in the liberation of a foreign country. The oil companies will take a hit but that’s why the posted record earnings to prepare for tough times. Non-Revenue producing government agencies rely on funding from the people via taxes. There are quite a few redundant agencies and a lot of mismanagement which could be fine tuned. A restructuring of the federal tax code would lead to significant reduction in staff for the Internal Revenue Service for one example. There doesn’t need to be a plethora of exemptions which requires a 1000+ pages to detail. If you make less than 10K you pay 0, 15k -20K 10%, 20K -35K 15%, etc. No exemptions for earned income.

There should be programs put in place to allow people to freeze loans (all loans) in place until these people can stand on their feet. Everyone took out the loan knowing the repercussions but no one forecasted the state of the economy which led to them not being able to fulfill their obligations. A bank will be able to deduct the loss of income during this time frame against yearly taxes. The duration of the loan extends the amount of the missed time.

There should be immediate laws to prevent predatory lending institutions from instuting unfair penalties, practices, and rates. There should be laws enacted which convert immediately all these current loans obligations to a fair rate loan which is fixed unless the borrower is an accredited investor who fully understands the terms of the loan.

Private Healthy Companies need to make money to thrive and be able to hire and pay fair compensation. Our government has made it very hard for private industry to thrive in our country with high tax rates, hidden taxes, and extensive regulatory compliance. If we simplify the regulatory compliance we make it easier on the company to comply and cut down the high cost of red tape. Our government needs to operate competitively with what the global market the keep industries here and attract others.

You want to do your share, buy American vote those who back American. I remember the rally cry in the 80s to buy American; it needs to be ingrained in what we do. You want to cut down the dependence on foreign oil and tired of high gas prices, search out alternatives and use them. Yes it sucks and not as user friendly as our current gasoline fueled cars but think about supply and demand. It will get better. Be the change you want to see.


The economy is hurting now but the answer isn’t a hand out it’s a hand up.

Analysis of Gas Price (September 28, 2009)

I was thrown for a loop when one congressman suggested we raise the price of taxes on gas and wondered if people have given thought to the true profit centers of gas. Gas is a byproduct of oil. Crude Oil is sold in barrels. A barrel of crude of sold in contracts and you will hear about it every night in the news. There are 42 gallons of crude oil to a barrel (Oil is no longer transported in barrels but it's still the measuring stick). These 42 gallons are refined and what can be produced from this barrel is:19.5 Gallons Gasoline9.2 Gallons Fuel Oils4.1 Gallons Jet Fuel11.2 Gallons Misc (Kerosene, Road Oil, etc)* Yes there are 44 gallons because of chemical changes in the refinery process commonly know as "refinery gain"So if a barrel of Crude cost $40 a gallon, the base cost for one gallon would be 40/44 = 90.9 cents The second largest cost is the tax. 57.9 cents18.4 cents Federal Excise Tax39.5 cents IL Taxes (sales tax, excise, etc)The third largest cost is the cost of transportation. 15 cents The fourth largest cost is the cost of refining. 10 - 15 cents (12.5)The fifth Cost is the Retailer Cost: 5 cents The sixth Cost is the various profit market ups of these: 10 cents So if your gas station owner needed to look at resupplying his/her pumps on gas that is refined from a contract on a $40 barrel of crude he/she would put the price at (90.9 + 57.9 + 15 + 12.5 + 5 + 10 = 1.913) 1.913 a Gallon.48% goes back to the seller of the crude oil10% Federal Government21% State Government8% Transportation of the product7% Refining3% Gas Station Owner3% Misc. Profit If Congress wanted to help they would shift the tax from the consumer to the seller of the crude. The United States is the buyer of 25% of the crude oil market we should have some say in making the equation a little more fair.

Deciphering the Dow (September 29, 2009)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is what most people think of when they hear the market is up or down. It’s not necessarily a true reflection of the market.

History:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was founded by Charles Dow on May 26, 1896. It was used to represent the average of 12 stocks from the leading American industries. Of the original 12 stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average compiled later in 1896; no longer railroad stocks only General Electric is still currently part of the index.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average now consists of 30 stocks which are considered titans of the industry or the blue chip companies. They are:

Company Symbol Industry
3M MMM Conglomerate
Alcoa AA Aluminum)
American Express AXP Consumer finance
AT&T T Telecommunication
Bank of America BAC Banking
Boeing BA Aerospace and defense
Caterpillar CAT Construction and mining equipment
Chevron Corporation CVX Oil & gas
Cisco Systems CSCO Computer networking
Coca-Cola KO Beverages
DuPont DD Chemical industry
ExxonMobil XOM Oil & gas
General Electric GE Conglomerate
Hewlett-Packard HPQ Technology
The Home Depot HD Home improvement retailer
Intel INTC Semiconductors
IBM IBM Computers and technology
Johnson & Johnson JNJ Pharmaceuticals
JPMorgan Chase JPM Banking
Kraft Foods KFT Food processing
McDonald's MCD Fast food
Merck MRK Pharmaceuticals
Microsoft MSFT Software
Pfizer PFE Pharmaceuticals
Procter & Gamble PG Consumer goods
Travelers TRV Insurance
United Technologies UTX Conglomerate)
Verizon Comm VZ Telecommunication
Wal-Mart WMT Retail
Walt Disney DIS Broadcasting and entertainment



The Dow averaged a 5.3% return compounded annually for the 20th century, for the 21st century to match this feat the Dow would have close 2099 at about 2,000,000.

The stocks are relatively safe investments which allow you to make a decent return. The companies listed in the DOW will not make you rich but are pretty stable and shouldn’t make you poor.


Computing the Average:

The DJIA is the sum of the prices of all 30 stocks divided by a Divisor (the Dow Divisor).


With p = prices of the stocks of the DJIA & d = the Dow Divisor.


The divisor is adjusted for stock splits, spinoffs or structural changes to ensure that such events do not in themselves alter the numerical value of the DJIA.

The Dow Divisor is currently 0.132319125 as September 28, 2009.

For every $1 change in price in a particular stock within the average there is a 7.56 point movement.

Summary:

When you hear about the DOW being up or down think of major industries in the United States and how investors are perceiving their value. I myself value a public company at 10 times earnings + liquidity value.